The buzz online is unmistakable: is X on its last legs? Is Bluesky, the shiny new champion, ready to take over? As with most things in the social media world, the answer isn’t black and white. Let’s dig into the data, the trends, and the stories behind the headlines to see what’s happening.
Is X on the decline?
X owner, Elon Musk, claims the platform is more popular than ever, but the reality is tricky to measure. Since X is now a private company, it doesn’t need to report user stats publicly. That leaves us relying on third-party estimates, each with its quirks.
Take the Financial Times’ go-to data from Similarweb, for example. It tracked an explosion of visits to X’s deactivation web page. But here’s the catch: 90% of mobile internet usage happens in apps, not on browsers. So, these metrics give us just part of the story.
And what about the much-discussed “Twitter exodus”? History tells us it’s not the first time users have declared they’re leaving the platform. During the 2016 US presidential election, over 1.2 million users claimed they quit Twitter, proclaiming the platform finished. Our analysis of account activity shows a whopping 86% of them returned within six months. If anything, this shows that, for many, leaving Twitter is a phase, not a permanent move.
The numbers don’t lie
Let’s zoom in on some complex data:
- GWI Data: Among UK users aged 16-64, usage has been steady from 2020 to Q3 2024. The question “Do you visit Twitter daily?” consistently yields the same general trends.
- Google Trends: Global searches for terms like “Twitter” or “X” haven’t wavered much in the past five years, suggesting public interest remains steady.
- IT Decision-Makers: our study of over 1,400 IT leaders across EMEA found their activity jumped by 25% year-on-year, highlighting its continued relevance in professional circles.
Our own analysis of X’s infamous “deactivation page” doesn’t show evidence of a mass exodus, as claimed by Similarweb. Organic traffic is minimal, and most referrals come from media articles offering how-to guides. It’s more bark than bite.
Enter Bluesky: a bright future or just hype?
Bluesky, the decentralised social media newcomer, is making waves. Its main selling point? A more straightforward, chronological feed which does have an algorithm, but isn’t driven by bias. Sounds refreshing. But dig a little deeper, and the picture gets more complicated.
What’s good about Bluesky?
Bluesky fosters a no-frills experience, where your timeline is solely based on posts from people you follow. For those tired of X’s algorithm-driven chaos, this simplicity is appealing. It’s also a draw for journalists, with 26,000 self-identifying reporters, editors, and writers on the platform. That’s no small feat.
What’s not so good?
Bluesky may not be the utopia some make it out to be. Investigative journalist Dave Troy recently revealed ties between Bluesky’s investors and controversial groups, describing them as “crypto bros” with political agendas. Add to that a growing number of spam accounts, bots, and questionable content, and it’s clear the platform faces its own challenges.
And let’s not forget the scale. Bluesky has 896 million posts in total (at the time of writing), a solid number but dwarfed by the daily tweets on X. Without algorithms to help surface content, keeping up with a large audience could become a major obstacle.
Who’s winning the social media race?
It’s tempting to declare a winner in the X vs Bluesky debate, but success isn’t so simple. Here are some areas to consider:
1. B2B conversations
X remains the go-to platform for business chatter. Primarily used for direct customer engagement, it’s hard to beat X’s reach. Bluesky, while growing, isn’t quite there yet. An analysis of 3 million Bluesky posts found little evidence of sustained B2B activity. We analysed 150 of the top UK B2B brands and found that only 25 of these have a presence on the platform, and most of the accounts that do exist are dormant, with brands clearly looking to just reserve their handle.
2. Community dynamics
Bluesky is often celebrated as a platform fostering a more positive and inclusive community. However, it’s not immune to challenges that threaten its promise of openness and diversity.
Moderation is a critical area where Bluesky faces challenges. The platform relies heavily on volunteer moderators to manage content, which can lead to inconsistencies in enforcement. As the user base grows, this system may struggle to address the increasing volume of posts effectively.
These issues suggest that while Bluesky offers an appealing alternative to algorithm-driven platforms, it must address its structural weaknesses to truly fulfil its potential. Ensuring diverse conversations and improving moderation practices will be essential as the platform continues to evolve.
3. Journalists’ influence
Bluesky’s journalist population is growing, with 2,300 journalists overlapping between Bluesky and major UK business and national publications. However, only a handful of national news outlets have set up corporate profiles. It feels like Bluesky is still in its experimental phase.
What does this mean for brands?
Here’s the good news: brands don’t need to pick a side yet. X isn’t dying (more like morphing), and Bluesky isn’t yet a runaway success. Each platform has its strengths and weaknesses. What matters is aligning your social media strategy with your goals.
For now, LinkedIn reigns supreme for B2B marketing. We used our AI-powered digital insight platform LUCA to review LinkedIn activity, showing an ever-growing presence of CEOs and brands. In fact, LinkedIn reports record-breaking levels of engagement among professionals, cementing its role as the ultimate platform for business networking.
Final thoughts: keep your options open
Bluesky is intriguing but far from dethroning X, which continues to motor on despite its controversies. For brands, the best strategy is a balanced one: keep an eye on emerging platforms while leveraging the proven power of LinkedIn and X.